Data-driven analysis of the structural forces — demographic, technological, economic —
that will shape the next century.
Robots are not stealing jobs. They are replacing the unborn. When the Shadow Workforce handles survival, eight billion people become an aristocracy. Athens used that freedom to invent philosophy. Rome…
Britain has undergone one of the most rapid peacetime demographic transformations in European history. It was not planned. It emerged from a sequence of policy decisions — and its long-term trajectory…
In a single generation, the West gave away the industrial monopoly it had held for two centuries. From the rust belts of the Midlands to the boomtowns of Guangdong, this is the story of the Great Offs…
Recently published analysis across all sections.
In a single generation, the West gave away the industrial monopoly it had held for two centuries. From the rust belts of the Midlands to the boomtowns of Guangd…
For five thousand years, if you could not write, you hired a scribe. If you could not code, you hired a developer. AI has just made everyone literate in the dig…
Robots are not stealing jobs. They are replacing the unborn. When the Shadow Workforce handles survival, eight billion people become an aristocracy. Athens used…
Britain has undergone one of the most rapid peacetime demographic transformations in European history. It was not planned. It emerged from a sequence of policy…
Guilt societies are ruled by an internal judge; shame societies by the eye of the crowd. The difference shapes corruption, rule of law, and how civilisations un…
Between them, European and East Asian civilisations built virtually everything that defines the modern world — the scientific method, industrial manufacturing,…
On a single street in a Western city, five families have one child and two have two. That is nine children where fifteen are needed. Some chose this. Some wante…
For five thousand years, every successful civilisation tightly controlled who could enter, settle, and become a citizen. Then, in the space of a single generati…
On February 4th 2026, a Washington Post reporter in a warzone in Ukraine learned by text message that she had been laid off. Nearly half the newsroom was gone i…
In a small town in southern Italy, a school closed last year. Not because of budget cuts. Because there were no children left. That empty classroom is the futur…
Western dominance was a 200-year anomaly. The world is reverting to the historical mean.
Source: Maddison Project, IMF · Read the full analysis →
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Energy, food, water, land — the physical foundations that every civilisation depends on.
The COP26 climate conference held in November 2021 reiterated the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, and to stop the average gl…
In a previous article History Future Now admitted defeat: climate change is happening and there is no viable political solution which will enable us to stop it…
Some of you may have noticed some land deals in Africa being announced in the press over the past few years. The stories invariably include China in the headlin…
How nations rise, compete, and decline — from colonial empires to modern China.
In a single generation, the West gave away the industrial monopoly it had held for two centuries. From the rust belts of the Midlands to the boomtowns of Guangd…
In 1932, Germany spent less than 1% of GDP on its military. By 1939, that figure was 23%. The transformation took just seven years. Today, Europe is embarking o…
SpaceX is building Starship production lines at scale. China plans a permanent lunar base by 2030. NASA's Artemis programme aims to return Americans to the Moon…
Automation, trade, debt, and the future of work in an age of intelligent machines.
For five thousand years, if you could not write, you hired a scribe. If you could not code, you hired a developer. AI has just made everyone literate in the dig…
In February 2026, the United States signed a trade deal with Taiwan that included $250 billion in semiconductor investment pledges. Tariffs are back. Industrial…
Microsoft's AI chief predicts virtually all white-collar tasks will be automated within 18 months. South Korea's fertility rate is 0.72. Japan sells more adult…
Democracy, religion, migration, identity — the human systems that bind us together.
Robots are not stealing jobs. They are replacing the unborn. When the Shadow Workforce handles survival, eight billion people become an aristocracy. Athens used…
Britain has undergone one of the most rapid peacetime demographic transformations in European history. It was not planned. It emerged from a sequence of policy…
Guilt societies are ruled by an internal judge; shame societies by the eye of the crowd. The difference shapes corruption, rule of law, and how civilisations un…